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Exchangeability.DeFinetti.ViaL2.AlphaIicCE

Canonical Conditional Expectation Version of Alpha_Iic #

This file defines alphaIicCE, the canonical conditional expectation version of the CDF-building function alphaIic. This is the "best" representative of the L¹ equivalence class, with good a.e. properties.

Main definitions #

Main results #

References #

Canonical conditional expectation version of alphaIic #

The existential α from weighted_sums_converge_L1 is unique in L¹ up to a.e. equality. We now define the canonical version using conditional expectation onto the tail σ-algebra. This avoids all pointwise headaches and gives us the endpoint limits for free.

noncomputable def Exchangeability.DeFinetti.ViaL2.alphaIicCE {Ω : Type u_1} [MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : MeasureTheory.Measure Ω} [MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (X : Ω) (hX_contract : Contractable μ X) (hX_meas : ∀ (i : ), Measurable (X i)) (hX_L2 : ∀ (i : ), MeasureTheory.MemLp (X i) 2 μ) (t : ) :
Ω

Canonical conditional expectation version of α_{Iic t}.

This is the conditional expectation of the indicator function 1_{(-∞,t]}∘X_0 with respect to the tail σ-algebra. By the reverse martingale convergence theorem, this equals the existential alphaIic almost everywhere.

Key advantages:

  • Has pointwise bounds 0 ≤ alphaIicCE ≤ 1 everywhere (not just a.e.)
  • Monotone in t almost everywhere (from positivity of conditional expectation)
  • Endpoint limits follow from L¹ contraction and dominated convergence
Equations
Instances For
    theorem Exchangeability.DeFinetti.ViaL2.alphaIicCE_measurable {Ω : Type u_1} [MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : MeasureTheory.Measure Ω} [MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (X : Ω) (hX_contract : Contractable μ X) (hX_meas : ∀ (i : ), Measurable (X i)) (hX_L2 : ∀ (i : ), MeasureTheory.MemLp (X i) 2 μ) (t : ) :
    Measurable (alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 t)

    Measurability of alphaIicCE.

    Note: Previously had BorelSpace typeclass instance resolution issues. The conditional expectation condExp μ (tailSigma X) f is measurable by stronglyMeasurable_condExp.measurable, but Lean can't synthesize the required BorelSpace instance automatically. This should be straightforward to fix.

    theorem Exchangeability.DeFinetti.ViaL2.alphaIicCE_mono {Ω : Type u_1} [MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : MeasureTheory.Measure Ω} [MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (X : Ω) (hX_contract : Contractable μ X) (hX_meas : ∀ (i : ), Measurable (X i)) (hX_L2 : ∀ (i : ), MeasureTheory.MemLp (X i) 2 μ) (s t : ) :
    s t∀ᵐ (ω : Ω) μ, alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 s ω alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 t ω

    alphaIicCE is monotone nondecreasing in t (for each fixed ω).

    theorem Exchangeability.DeFinetti.ViaL2.alphaIicCE_nonneg_le_one {Ω : Type u_1} [MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : MeasureTheory.Measure Ω} [MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (X : Ω) (hX_contract : Contractable μ X) (hX_meas : ∀ (i : ), Measurable (X i)) (hX_L2 : ∀ (i : ), MeasureTheory.MemLp (X i) 2 μ) (t : ) :
    ∀ᵐ (ω : Ω) μ, 0 alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 t ω alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 t ω 1

    alphaIicCE is bounded in [0,1] almost everywhere.

    theorem Exchangeability.DeFinetti.ViaL2.alphaIicCE_right_continuous_at {Ω : Type u_1} [MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : MeasureTheory.Measure Ω} [MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (X : Ω) (hX_contract : Contractable μ X) (hX_meas : ∀ (i : ), Measurable (X i)) (hX_L2 : ∀ (i : ), MeasureTheory.MemLp (X i) 2 μ) (t : ) :
    ∀ᵐ (ω : Ω) μ, ⨅ (q : { q : // t < q }), alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 (↑q) ω alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 t ω

    Right-continuity of alphaIicCE at any real t.

    For any real t, the infimum over rationals greater than t is at most the value at t: ⨅ q > t (rational), alphaIicCE q ω ≤ alphaIicCE t ω a.e.

    Combined with monotonicity (which gives the reverse inequality), this proves the infimum equals the value.

    Proof strategy:

    • Indicators 1_{Iic s} are right-continuous in s: as s ↓ t, 1_{Iic s} ↓ 1_{Iic t}
    • By dominated convergence for condExp, E[1_{Iic s}(X₀)|tail] → E[1_{Iic t}(X₀)|tail] in L¹
    • For monotone decreasing sequences, L¹ convergence + boundedness ⇒ a.e. convergence
    • Therefore ⨅ s > t, alphaIicCE s = alphaIicCE t a.e.

    Note: Uses dominated convergence for conditional expectations. The mathematical argument is standard: for CDFs built from conditional expectations, right-continuity follows from dominated convergence applied to decreasing indicators.

    theorem Exchangeability.DeFinetti.ViaL2.alphaIicCE_iInf_rat_gt_eq {Ω : Type u_1} [MeasurableSpace Ω] {μ : MeasureTheory.Measure Ω} [MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasure μ] (X : Ω) (hX_contract : Contractable μ X) (hX_meas : ∀ (i : ), Measurable (X i)) (hX_L2 : ∀ (i : ), MeasureTheory.MemLp (X i) 2 μ) :
    ∀ᵐ (ω : Ω) μ, ∀ (q : ), ⨅ (r : (Set.Ioi q)), alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 (↑r) ω = alphaIicCE X hX_contract hX_meas hX_L2 (↑q) ω

    Right-continuity of alphaIicCE at rationals.

    For each rational q, the infimum from the right equals the value: ⨅ r > q (rational), alphaIicCE r = alphaIicCE q a.e.

    Proof strategy:

    • alphaIicCE is monotone (increasing in t)
    • For rₙ ↓ q, the indicators 1_{Iic rₙ} ↓ 1_{Iic q} pointwise
    • By dominated convergence: E[1_{Iic rₙ}(X₀)|tail] → E[1_{Iic q}(X₀)|tail] in L¹
    • For monotone sequences, L¹ convergence implies a.e. convergence
    • So alphaIicCE rₙ → alphaIicCE q a.e. for any sequence rₙ ↓ q
    • This means ⨅ r > q, alphaIicCE r = alphaIicCE q a.e.